Shutdown threatens to hit IRS as Trump touts massive tax refunds

Taxpayers could face long waits for IRS responses to questions on a slew of complicated new tax changes this filing season, as odds of a partial government shutdown rose sharply in the wake of federal agents’ killing of a man in Minneapolis over the weekend. 

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Annual funding for the agency runs out after midnight Friday, at which point employees would be furloughed or required to work without pay as millions of taxpayers start to file returns due April 15. A shutdown would hit a beleaguered IRS already weathering leadership shakeups, staff cuts and changes to the tax code, and plunge the agency into uncertainty just as filing season gets underway.

“We would be in uncharted territory,” said Andrew Lautz, director of tax policy for the Bipartisan Policy Center. “We don’t know exactly how the agency would respond.”

This filing season, which opened Monday, has taken on increased political significance as President Donald Trump has ramped up promises of huge tax refunds, thanks to last year’s sweeping “big, beautiful” tax law. Promises of big refunds have been central to Republicans’ counter to Democrats’ attacks on affordability.

The impact on how quickly refunds would be processed isn’t clear. The agency claims to issue refunds to most taxpayers within 21 days of filing.

Pete Sepp, president of the National Taxpayers Union, a nonprofit advocacy group, said he expects the IRS to maintain that standard even with the disruption of a shutdown. But refunds are likely to be issued on the “outer edge” of the 21-day range, Sepp said.

The agency hasn’t indicated how it would respond to a shutdown during filing season. The Treasury Department has not updated its contingency plans for the agency and did not immediately respond to a request for details. 

During last year’s record 43-day shutdown, the agency furloughed just under half of its staff, requiring the rest to work without pay. Experts said they expected a bigger portion of the agency’s staff to continue working in the event of a filing season shutdown.

That could bring its own challenges. Experience with air traffic controllers and transportation security staff, both federal workforces that regularly have to work without pay during shutdowns, has shown that employees may work at a slower pace and have more absences when their pay is stopped.

Long wait times

In addition to big changes to the tax code, the IRS has contended with high leadership turnover, with seven commissioners in the last year, and steep staff cuts. Another lapse in funding would hit the IRS as the agency is already on shaky ground, according to a Treasury Inspector General for Tax Administration report released Monday.

The tax collector has lost nearly a fifth of its staff since October 2024, with staffing of roles key to ensuring filing season runs smoothly down 17%.

Changes in the Treasury’s hiring processes and last year’s record shutdown also delayed training of new employees hired specifically for tax filing season. The IRS had only hired and fully trained 2% of the 2,200 approved positions dedicated to processing returns by the end of last year, according to the report.

Sepp said that for taxpayers filing electronically without errors or a need to reach out to the agency the process would not seem “terribly discombobulated.” But those trying to get a hold of the IRS with questions will likely run into trouble, if the government shuts down. 

And with the recent changes to the tax code more people are expected to turn to the agency for help than usual.

“For anyone who needs to reach a real-life human being at the Service with a tax question or inquiry, I mean, they could be out of luck,” Sepp said. “Pack a lunch and make a day out of it because it could take that long.”

The IRS has already lowered its goal for phone calls answered during filing season from 85% of calls to 70%, according to the inspector general’s report.

A new deduction for loan interest for new cars purchased last year includes restrictions that are likely to prompt questions from taxpayers. Expanded eligibility for a 20% deduction for pass-through business owners could also drive taxpayers to seek answers from the IRS, Sepp said.

Alex Muresianu, senior policy analyst for the Tax Foundation, said a new $12,500 deduction for overtime pay could also cause confusion for taxpayers, given eligibility requirements.

“There’s already a baseline of potential difficulty in the tax season to begin with,” he said, citing staff cuts and new provisions. “There might be more people that have questions this year than in other years.”

All eyes on refunds

In 2019, a 35-day shutdown during Trump’s first term that ended just days before filing season hobbled the agency’s preparation, resulting in refund delays.

Lautz said it was “too early to tell” whether there would be a delay to routine refunds, and the timing of refunds tied to new tax breaks for tips and overtime wages is even more uncertain.

“We don’t have great insight yet into how Treasury and IRS are processing returns with tips and overtime deduction, matching them to employer information, and/or auditing a selection of those returns,” he said.

The inspector general warned the IRS already faced a processing backlog of 2 million filings at the end of 2025, including amended returns and taxpayer correspondence. The backlog was 129% higher heading into this filing season compared to before the pandemic, according to the report.

Sepp said filing season would likely run more smoothly than in 2019 even with a shutdown, given greater reliance on tax preparation software by filers and automation at the IRS. 

“Seven years is an awfully long time in the IRS’ technological evolution,” Sepp said. “It’s only been in the past few years that the service has gotten better at automated processes.”

The IRS expects 164 million individual tax returns to be filed this year ahead of the April 15 deadline.