Prof Jones, from Cardiff University, carried out the research for BBC Wales Investigates.
It suggests that the 2,000 or so jobs lost directly at Tata sites in Wales could be joined by a further 3,000 roles that rely on Tata for trade.
But he said the most “alarming” figures were on the impact of wages in Port Talbot.
The economics professor estimated the job losses at Tata would see a 10% drop in the town’s gross earnings – £133m a year.
If half of the supply companies were based locally, he estimated the drop in earnings would be 15% – more than £200m.
“That’s £200m a year gone from a local economy until those people find new jobs or other employment comes in.
“So, I guess the question will be what happens instead?
“We have not had an industrial strategy worthy of the name for 40 years… we don’t seem to know where we want to go industrially, so it’s no surprise you don’t get there.
“I think more widely, in the same way as the miners strike and thereafter, it was the end of the era for the valleys, this is the end of an era for industrial south Wales.”
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