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The writer is deputy head of the Middle East and north Africa programme at the European Council on Foreign Relations
For more than two weeks, protests have roiled Iran. The demonstrations were triggered by a surge of inflation and currency devaluation. The protesters — initially led by shopkeepers and the poor — demanded basic economic survival. Others have since joined, pushing for democratic freedoms and the end of the Islamic republic. Since Thursday, sizeable crowds have mobilised, with increased support for Reza Pahlavi, the exiled son of the deposed Shah.
Iran’s ruling elites are bogged down by seismic economic challenges, political upheaval and environmental problems of their own making. These have been compounded by western sanctions and deadlocked talks with Washington. The leadership faces a deep crisis of legitimacy while preparing for the possibility of renewed conflict against Israel and the US. Without a new social contract underpinned by meaningful reform, Iran’s prospects are bleak.
In the past, the iron fist of security forces has quashed major protests, and these remain loyal to the regime. Rights groups say over 100 have been killed in current demonstrations, including minors and security personnel. Iran’s ongoing internet blackout raises fears that the death count is far higher.
On Friday, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei predictably remained defiant, labelling protesters “vandals”. Iranian security forces allege protesters have crossed red lines by killing police officers and setting ablaze state property. The death sentence has been threatened against those labelled as rioters working with Iran’s foreign enemies. Yet with each suppressed protest movement, the Islamic republic of Iran has turned more of its people against it.
This bottom-up pressure is now compounded by a deepening risk of renewed war. US President Donald Trump has repeatedly threatened to attack if protesters are harmed. Given previous ambitions to provoke regime collapse, Israel may use the protests as an opportunity to resume strikes.
Iran’s leaders face a perilous moment, but they are no strangers to chaos. The regime has survived wars, sanctions and political upheaval through ruthless force, pragmatism and leadership unity. However, the off-ramps have now significantly narrowed. One pathway is to bet on China and Russia. But despite Khamenei’s attempts to forge an alliance based on an anti-western front, neither Beijing nor Moscow appear willing to play ball. The forcible removal of Iran’s allies in Syria and Venezuela — despite Russia and China backing them — suggests this is unlikely to pay off.
Iran may opt to harden security on all fronts, with a bigger crackdown at home and a show of force abroad. Faced with Trump’s cowboy tactics in Venezuela, it could confront the US and Israel, perhaps pre-emptively, with a broader regional war or even a dash for a nuclear bomb. However, this would be potentially suicidal.
The most sustainable way out is a new social contract between the state and Iranian citizens. The Islamic republic can no longer provide adequate economic welfare, the middle class is hollowed out and corruption is rampant. The security apparatus that used to protect Iranians from the conflicts ravaging their neighbours can no longer do so.
A new credible social contract needs to offer economic development, improved governance, expanded political rights and social freedoms while shifting power from corrupt ideologues to technocrats in a pathway for systemic change. In direct response to the shopkeepers, Iran’s president called for national dialogue, replaced the central bank governor and approved a monthly small stipend to all households. These gestures have been too little, too late.
As some activist groups behind the protests have underscored, any new social contract must be decided by those inside Iran. Attempts by the US and Israel to forcefully impose change risk deeper turmoil. One approach, recently advocated by leading civil society figures, is a transition away from the Islamic republic. Others suggest a new political system shaped by the current ruling elite to avoid security forces spoilers. Another path would be a referendum on a revised constitution, as an influential Iranian Sunni religious leader reiterated during Friday prayer. This could include abolishing the role of supreme leader in favour of accountable state institutions.
Sustainable reform at home would ultimately require a bargain with the US. Iran must work with Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Qatar — whose leaders fear regional war and have strong ties with Trump — to revive stalled diplomacy. Even if these protests ultimately lead to a new power structure, only a comprehensive deal with Washington will remove the constant shadow of war and sanctions under which too many generations of Iranians have lived.
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