US at the tipping point

A few thoughts as we try to read the tea leaves to discern who is likely to win tomorrow’s U.S. election.  The polling data that was pointing to a potential victory for Donald Trump just a week ago appears to have shifted towards Kamala Harris. Polymarket still favors Trump to win, but those odds have shrunk to him getting 54% of votes cast vs. 65% lask week. Polling expert Frank Luntz suggests we’ve reached the limit on how much the polls can tell us, instead advising people to look at the nature of the turnout: a surge in young women at the polls bodes well for Kamala, more young men may suggest higher numbers for Trump.

In the days ahead, we’ll dissect the results and debate how we got there. Before that, I’d suggest you list to this conversation I had with Malcolm Gladwell for the Leadership Next podcast. Many of you know Gladwell as the writer who distilled the factors needed to make a product or idea explode into a trend in his first book, The Tipping Point. Now, he is looking at how humans manipulate these factors to cause the fevers and contagions around us—for good and for ill. (Think of how the Sacklers marketed OxyContin through Perdue or political advisors tailor their campaigns for different demographics.)

One factor that’s different in this election is what Gladwell calls the “magic third”—pivoting off research from Rosabeth Moss Kanter about being “the only” in a group and the impact when those outsiders reach a third of the total. Whether you’re for Trump or Harris, you know that half of the country is behind you, eliminating the need to feel ‘shy’ about your choice. Gladwell doesn’t weigh in on the state of politics, saying “I’m baffled by it.”

What he does know is the art of connecting the dots in a way that does help C-suite leaders make better decisions. “To be a business leader in 2024 requires that somebody have much more than an understanding of good business practices and strategy. You’re leading diverse, complicated workforces. You are dealing with consumers who are way more complex and unpredictable than they ever were in the past … You have to be someone who’s curious about the whole world.”

And, of course, you have to engage with other curious people who can help you see around the corner. That’s the kind of gathering we’ve put together next week at the Fortune Global Forum in New York. I hope you’ll join us.

More news below.

Diane Brady
diane.brady@fortune.com
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