The US has cut off intelligence sharing with Kyiv in a move that could seriously hamper the Ukrainian military’s ability to target Russian forces.
The step follows the decision on Monday by the Donald Trump administration to suspend military aid deliveries to Ukraine and comes after a dramatic breakdown in relations between the US president and Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
US intelligence co-operation has been essential for Ukraine’s ability to identify and strike Russian military targets.
Four officials familiar with the decision confirmed that Washington had frozen intelligence channels with Kyiv. John Ratcliffe, director of the CIA, later told Fox Business: “Trump had a real question about whether President Zelenskyy was committed to the peace process, and he said let’s pause.”
But he added that there was hope of the support being restored. “I want to give a chance to think about that, and you saw the response that President Zelenskyy put out,” Ratcliffe added. “So I think on the military front and the intelligence front, the pause that allowed that to happen, I think will go away.”
While the US has also formally blocked its allies from sharing US intelligence with Ukraine, two officials said that recipients with assets inside the country were likely to continue passing on relevant intelligence to Kyiv. But that would not apply to time-sensitive and high-value intelligence, such as that needed for Ukraine to conduct precision strikes on moveable Russian targets.
“If they don’t reverse it soon, it will become really difficult for the Ukrainians because it takes away their battlefield advantage,” said a senior western official.
The US decision to ban its allies from passing intelligence to Ukraine was first reported by the Daily Mail.
After a heated Oval Office clash between Zelenskyy and Trump, relations between Washington and Kyiv deteriorated before recent signs of repair.
Zelenskyy made a show of contrition on Tuesday, saying the meeting in front of the television cameras was “regrettable” and Ukraine was “ready to come to the negotiating table as soon as possible”.
He also said in a letter he was ready to sign a deal with Trump “at any time” that would give the US the rights to profit from exploiting Ukraine’s natural resources.
In his address to Congress on Tuesday night, the US president — who has previously called the democratically elected Zelenskyy a “dictator” — said he appreciated the Ukrainian leader’s words.
On Wednesday Mike Waltz, US national security adviser, also suggested military aid to Ukraine could be restarted.
“I think if we can nail down these negotiations and move towards these negotiations, and in fact, put some confidence-building measures on the table, then the president will take a hard look at lifting this pause,” Waltz told Fox News.
A spokesperson for Ukraine’s military intelligence refused to comment on how a cut-off of US intelligence would affect its work. “We have a plan B,” they said earlier this week.
The extent of the US’s intelligence support is classified but analysts said it allowed Kyiv to receive live intelligence on the enemy’s movements.
At an “operational level, to look at the movement of forces for example, satellites are a big help and US capabilities are really important”, said Mykhailo Samus, a Ukrainian military expert.
US intelligence also plays a role in the early warning system against Russian missiles and drone raids on Ukrainian cities and energy infrastructure.
“Ukraine’s military intelligence has never said exactly what type of info they get from the US,” said Pavlo Narozhny, a Ukrainian military analyst. “But you can make an educated guess, you can note the Reaper drones and American planes flying regularly near the border, you can see that every time a Russian MiG-31 takes off, it triggers an air raid alarm across Ukraine.”
Where US intelligence may have been the most crucial has been in allowing precision strikes on Russian-held territory. “Static targets like factories or oil plants” were “something we can do ourselves”, Narozhny said. “But we’ve been able to hit command centres, kill generals, and this was probably done with the help of US intelligence.”
Sir Keir Starmer, UK prime minister, and Emmanuel Macron, French president, have said they would work with Zelenskyy on a peace plan to present to Trump, raising speculation that the three leaders could return to Washington within days.
“Things are moving fast,” said one British official, while Downing Street said: “There are no plans for that trip, but we will update.”
Additional reporting by George Parker in London
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