Worst Month in 17 Years fo Save Haven Rock

The catalyst yesterday was a Wall Street Journal report that President Donald Trump signaled willingness to end the U.S. military campaign against Iran, even if the Strait of Hormuz remains partially closed.

“Gold prices are bouncing in early Asia-Pacific trade after U.S. President Donald Trump told aides he is willing to end the U.S. military campaign against Iran… That triggered a risk-on response from financial markets,” said Ilya Spivak, head of global macro at Tastylive.

U.S. gold futures for April delivery gained 1.2% to $4,611.30 in tandem. The dollar eased, providing additional tailwind to greenback-denominated bullion.

Despite the daily reprieve, the macro structure driving gold’s rout remains intact, and Fed policy signals from Powell continue pointing toward a higher-for-longer rate environment that structurally penalizes non-yielding assets.

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Gold Price Prediction: Can XAU Reclaim $5,000 Before the Fed Blinks?

Today’s relief rally puts spot gold close to $4,700, up 1.5% intraday. This figure looks strong in isolation against March’s 13% drawdown from prior highs above $5,000.

Spivak flagged a critical technical signal: “Gold has been stabilizing for about a week now, with a rally last Friday a particular standout. That came alongside a drop in Treasury yields that seems to suggest the markets are starting to see the Iran war as a recession risk.”

Falling yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, that’s the bull mechanism. Quarterly gains still hold at approximately 5%, confirming the longer-term trend hasn’t broken.

For the gold price, if de-escalation holds, Treasury yields slide further, Fed language softens on inflation, gold can re-targets $4,800–$5,000 resistance recovery. Goldman Sachs maintains a $5,400/oz end-2026 target anchored by central bank accumulation and eventual easing.

However, if energy prices re-accelerate, the Fed signals no cuts through year-end, and Hormuz disruption deepens, a break below $4,300 opens the door to the low $4,000s.

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LiquidChain Targets Early Mover Upside as Gold Tests Key Resistance

Gold’s struggle to reclaim $5,000 raises an uncomfortable question for capital allocators: if the canonical safe haven is down 13% in a month, where does risk-adjusted opportunity actually live?

For us, watching macro dysfunction erode established stores of value, early-stage infrastructure plays with asymmetric upside are drawing renewed attention, particularly those solving real structural problems across fragmented liquidity markets.