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Russia’s Vladimir Putin called the killing of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on the first day of US and Israeli strikes on Iran a “cynical murder” that violated “all norms of human morality and international law”. Given the Russian president’s record, his statement reeks of cynical double standards. Since then, though, beyond reportedly providing intelligence to assist Iran’s retaliation against US and allied targets, Putin has been largely quiet about the attacks on a country with which he signed a strategic partnership last year. The Russian leader is presumably following Napoleon’s maxim: never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake.
For now, the Iran conflict is an unintended US gift to the Kremlin. Higher global energy prices and greater demand for Russian oil are delivering a hefty windfall. The FT has calculated that Moscow is earning up to $150mn a day in extra budget revenues from taxes on oil sales, and could earn $3.3bn-$4.9bn by the end of March. Russia has not yet recouped what it lost from low oil prices and a lack of sales to India — mostly due to US pressure — in the first two months of the year. But its projected March gain amounts to roughly a third of its monthly spending on its war on Ukraine.
Rising prices have also prompted the US to temporarily relax some oil sanctions by allowing countries to buy Russian crude stranded at sea. This regrettable decision not only provides further funds for Moscow but punctures western solidarity. It fuels Putin’s narrative that the west, especially the US, is not ready to take real pain to support Kyiv.
The Iran war is at the same time sucking up weapon supplies, above all air defences, that are vitally needed by Ukraine. Every Patriot missile sent to protect US targets and Gulf partners from Iranian counter-attacks is one that cannot end up in Kyiv. European partners fear Ukraine could face serious shortages in coming months.
The dynamic is not purely one-way: the longer the attacks on Iran persist, and the country’s industry and statehood are eroded, the more the net impact for Russia may shift to the negative. Iran has been a vital supplier of Shahed drones for Moscow’s war on Ukraine, though Russia now has its own production. The Islamic republic is also part of a north-south transport corridor for Russian exports and imports that helps Moscow to bypass western sanctions.
What is vital now, however, is for Ukraine’s non-American allies to hold their nerve — and rebuff the call from Belgium’s prime minister Bart De Wever for the EU to “normalise relations with Russia” in return for cheap energy. European partners need to drastically step up production of non-US air-defence systems and interceptor missiles. They should also support Ukraine’s efforts to export its own advanced anti-drone technology to countries such as the Gulf states in exchange for financing more military production lines for Kyiv.
On energy, European partners should press the US to limit its waivers on Russian oil sanctions to 30 days as billed, and not allow them to become permanent. They can limit the Kremlin’s energy windfall by better enforcing their own sanctions — including stepping up interdictions of Russia’s “shadow fleet” tankers.
Most urgently, the EU needs to pass its 20th sanctions package, which extends measures against Russian energy, and a further €90bn loan to Kyiv. Hungary and Slovakia have blocked these in a dispute over suspended Russian oil supplies via Ukraine, but Brussels moved this week to try to resolve the spat. Among the many negative repercussions of Donald Trump’s ill-conceived conflict with Iran, it must not be allowed to give Putin the upper hand in his own ill-begotten war against his neighbour.
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