CFOs cautious as election looms

CFOs seem to be cautious ahead of the U.S. election in November, with 58% saying the result of the election will be extremely or very consequential for their organization, according to a survey released Wednesday by Deloitte.

Only 3% say the CFOs surveyed believe the election will not be consequential at all. The Big Four firm’s quarterly CFO Signals survey found that only 14% of CFOs rate the current North American economy as good, while 19% believe it will be better in a year.

Inflation tops CFOs’ list of external risks. Technology transformation is the top internal risk. Only 12% of CFOs believe now is a good time to take on greater risk, down from 26% in the second quarter of 2024. A third (33%) of CFOs believe workforce issues should be a top priority for the federal government to address.

With the Federal Reserve expected to cut interest rates at its meeting Wednesday, the prospects for the U.S. economy may brighten. 

“With interest rate cuts on the horizon, CFOs are evaluating financing options as more attractive for the first time since early 2022,” Steve Gallucci, national managing partner of the U.S. CFO Program at Deloitte LLP, said in a statement. “Still, their optimism could be dampened by the uncertainty around the current election, which has perhaps tempered their appetite to take risks. In 2025, CFOs will be able to consider the impact of the election results and examine how new regulations or tax policies could impact their company’s operations.”

When asked about the economic issue they think may have the biggest impact on the operating environment for business in general, 20% of respondents cited tariffs, while 16% selected tax policy. The combined number (36%) outweighed the other answers: inflation (34%), interest rates (20%) and debt (11%).

CFOs see debt (55%) and equity financing (52%) as looking substantially more attractive than in previous quarters — levels not seen in more than two years. Respondents believe revenue will increase by 2.4% in the next 12 months, with earnings growth of 2.1%, less than half the two-year survey average (4.7%). Likewise, they expect a slowdown in capital spending, with year-over-year growth in capital expenditures estimated at 3.4%. That’s down from 6.2% in the third quarter of 2023. CFOs project that dividend growth will slow to 1.5%, down from 2.8% a year ago. 

After the election, an increase in the corporate tax rate could cut into earnings, and, in turn, result in CFOs pushing these numbers down even lower. 

“Election uncertainty is perhaps affecting not just CFOs’ likelihood to take greater risks, but their perception of the economic environment across the five regional economies,” Ira Kalish, chief global economist at Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited, said in a statement. “After the election, CFOs will have a clearer perspective on the political landscape in which businesses will be operating. Meanwhile, a shift in U.S. monetary policy will likely boost willingness to pursue new investments or transactions.”

CFOs’ most significant external and internal concerns reflect the challenges of the current business climate. Inflation is the top external concern (57%), followed by the economy (54%), and geopolitics (52%). CFOs’ greatest internal worry is technology transformation (49%), consistent with what was reported in the 2Q24 survey. In that report, CFOs’ most significant internal concern was Generative AI adoption.

CFOs seem to be becoming more risk averse, a trend also seen in recent quarters. Only 12% of CFOs believe now is a good time to be taking on greater risk. That’s down from 26% in 2Q24 — and well below the two-year average of 32%.