Unlock the Editor’s Digest for free
Roula Khalaf, Editor of the FT, selects her favourite stories in this weekly newsletter.
Houthi rebels in Yemen fired a ballistic missile at Israel for the first time since US and Israeli forces launched their war against Iran, signalling that one of the Islamic republic’s most powerful militant allies has entered the four-week conflict.
The Israeli military said it had intercepted a missile that was fired from Yemen. Yahya Saree, the Houthis’ military spokesman, said on X that the attack was in support of Iran and Hizbollah, the Iranian-backed Lebanese militant movement that has been firing hundreds of drones, rockets and missiles at Israel since the war erupted.
The Houthis’ decision to target Israel is the latest escalation of a conflict that has spread across the energy-rich Gulf, sending oil and gas prices to multi-year highs as Iran has attacked Washington’s Arab allies.
If the rebels step up their involvement in the war, it could further disrupt shipping through critical maritime routes and apply greater pressure on Israeli air defences, particularly its stock of missile interceptors.
“The decision by the Houthis to join the broader Middle East conflict marks a serious and deeply concerning escalation,” said Farea al-Muslimi, a Yemen analyst at Chatham House.
“Their involvement risks widening an already volatile war, with significant implications for regional stability, global trade and humanitarian conditions, particularly in Yemen.”
He added that the potential impact on crucial commercial maritime routes, “especially in the Red Sea and the Bab-el-Mandeb, cannot be overstated”.
After Hamas’s October 7 2023 attack and Israel’s war in Gaza triggered a regional conflict, the Houthis proved to be one of the most disruptive and resilient members of Iran’s “axis of resistance”.
The group fired hundreds of missiles and drones at Israel and severely disrupted the flow of maritime traffic through the Red Sea for about two years by attacking and threatening shipping. It said it was acting in solidarity with the Palestinians.
The Houthis, who control most of Yemen’s populous north, also survived intense US and Israeli bombing campaigns that targeted its military infrastructure and leadership.
The group has sat on the sidelines during the first four weeks of the US and Israel’s war against Iran.
Some analysts believed that was a calculated move by Tehran to keep Houthis in reserve. Others suspected that the group was wounded from the US and Israeli bombing campaigns, and was holding out for a deal with Saudi Arabia that could help ease dire economic conditions in Yemen.
Saudi Arabia led an Arab coalition that intervened in Yemen’s civil war in 2015 to fight the Houthis after the rebels seized Sana’a, the capital. A fragile truce has been in place for the past four years as Riyadh has sought to extract itself from the conflict.
In late 2023, Saudi Arabia was edging closer to an agreement with the rebels that would have led to the kingdom paying the salaries of public-sector workers in Houthi-controlled territory. That peace process was upended by Hamas’s October 7 attack.
But the truce between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis held, and Riyadh kept open channels of communication with the rebels while urging them to stay out of the Iran war. The Houthis have in the past fired missiles and drones at Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
Mohammed Albasha, founder of the US-based risk advisory firm, Basha Report, said the Houthis’ focus was still on the “Palestinian cause” and targeting Israel, rather than the US.
“Their direction stays fixed on Israel first. At the same time, they are signalling to the US and Saudi Arabia that they are not targeting them, at least for now,” he wrote on X.
“This move is deliberate. It puts them back in play without forcing an immediate large response. That is what they are betting on.”
Albasha said it was hoped that “this remains a signal rather than the start of a broader escalation”.
Credit: Source link
