Moldova’s vote on EU membership remains too close to call

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Moldova’s President Maia Sandu decried an “unprecedented assault” on the democratic process by “foreign forces” on Sunday as a referendum on EU membership remained too close to call after more than two-thirds had been counted.

For weeks before polling day authorities had issued warnings about intense Russian interference, describing their fight against a hydra-like network of Kremlin proxies and an onslaught of illegal money intended to purchase votes.

Sandu, who has depicted the referendum as a historic choice for the former Soviet nation of 2.5mn between a western course and returning to the Russian fold, also failed to secure enough votes to win outright in a presidential race held the same day.

In a terse statement to the press at her election headquarters late on Sunday night, less than 2 minutes long, Sandu said her government had evidence that “criminal groups aimed to buy 300,000 votes” to sway the dual vote.

“Working together with foreign forces hostile to our national interests, [they] have attacked our country with tens of millions of euros, lies, and propaganda,” Sandu said.

“We will not back down from defending democracy and freedom,” she added. “We are waiting for the final results, and we will respond with firm decisions.”

After midnight on Sunday, preliminary results showed some 53 per cent of voters opposed joining the EU, a move Sandu has pledged to complete by 2030 after launching a bid shortly after the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine two and a half years ago.

But even with some 80 per cent of ballots counted, the result remained too close to call because of the tight margin and the potential impact of voters among Moldova’s diaspora living in the west.

The close outcome in the referendum marks a surprise upset for Sandu, after polls consistently showed that around two-thirds of the population supported joining the EU.

It is also likely to enable Russia to fuel divisions inside Moldova, especially as opposition to both Sandu and the EU appears to have been concentrated in rural and ethnic minority areas.

Just 5 per cent of voters in Gagauzia, a minority region that declared itself independent after the fall of the Soviet Union but then accepted autonomous status within Moldova, voted in favour of the EU, the preliminary results showed.

In the run-up to voting day, law enforcement warned about the Russian campaign they could see building up to sway the ballot, estimating some $100mn had been spent on influence operations and voter bribery.

Police reported that one scheme after another was intended to bribe ordinary voters, including using funds brought in by “money mules” arriving on passenger flights from Moscow with substantial amounts of cash.

With Sandu’s bid for a second term backed by just 38 per cent of voters by early Monday, she will now have to face Alexandr Stoianoglo, the runner-up with 29 per cent of the vote at the same hour, in a second round that will be held next month.

A former prosecutor-general and political newcomer, Stoianoglo’s candidacy was supported by the pro-Russian socialist party. If other candidates with minor shares of the vote throw their weight behind him, the race next month could be extremely tight.

Sandu and her supporters had hoped for a resounding “yes” vote that would signal a clear decision by Moldovans about their future. They were not obliged to call a referendum on EU membership at this point in the accession process, and some diplomats and observers described it as a risky gamble.

Her team, however, said they had wanted to capitalise on a moment when both the president and parliament were pro-EU, and the bloc itself was spurred by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to expedite Chișinău’s bid. The EU has just pledged a €1.8bn multiyear package for Moldova to help it on the accession path.